Workforce
Improvement Board Strategic Planning Effort
Interim
Report
Section
I Executive Summary
The Center for Community Studies at Jefferson Community College (CCS) agreed to conduct all required research and develop a complete Workforce Improvement plan for Jefferson and Lewis Counties, as well as participate in the development of a Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) for Jefferson County. The CCS will use both primary and secondary research to gain a deeper understanding of the work force and economic development issues facing Jefferson and Lewis Counties, as well as offer benchmarking opportunities against other counties and state/national averages. The results of this research will be used to produce data-driven recommendations for the long-term improvement of work force preparation, employment, and overall economic growth.
This study spans fifteen months from February 2004 through April 2005 and includes completion of the following six tasks:
2a. A survey or focus group of regional employers.
2b. A survey or focus group of regional educators/education administrators.
2c. A survey or focus group of employed or
employable citizens of the region. (4/30/04)
The
“Top 10” findings/observations from the secondary research include:
1. The populations of both counties are in gradual decline, due to net out-migration. Higher birth rates generally offset this, but the result is a steady loss of skilled adult workers. Investments in higher education may not generate positive returns to local communities if the graduates of these programs are not retained. The loss of skilled/educated younger residents will limit the ability of the region to attract high-growth employers.
2. Real (inflation-corrected) earnings in both counties are in general decline as wage rates and salaries fail to outpace inflation. While overall income rates have increased very slightly, earnings as a share of income have dropped since 1991, with government transfer payments making up the difference. As manufacturing jobs are lost and replaced with lower-paying service sector jobs, worker earnings are dropping. Wages in key sectors, including health care and manufacturing, trail national levels.
3. Tourism generates approximately 10% of all the jobs in the region, but tourist revenues appear to have been flat or declining for the past 10 years, with little investment in new properties or attractions. The region clings to an outmoded tourism infrastructure and business model, resulting in lower spending levels on the part of those tourists who do visit, as compared to spending levels elsewhere in the state. Long-term tourism jobs and revenue may be at risk if significant improvements and investments are not made.
4. Relatively low levels of local spending limit the ability of the local retail industry to meet many local needs. This encourages spending leakage, as local dollars go to mail order or Internet retailers. The rapid adoption of the Internet as a shopping technology by regional consumers as well as the expanding access to broadband connections can be expected to accelerate the pattern of leakage through on-line consumption. Because on-line purchases are not taxable, while county sales taxes are expected to increase, the price difference between goods on-line and in Jefferson/Lewis County stores is expected to increase, further exacerbating the leakage.
5. Local college education levels trail those of the state and nation. Although percentages of local college graduates (4+ year) rose between 1990 and 2000 for the tri-county area, they did not rise as much as the national average. We trail the rest of the nation in education levels and appear to be slipping even further behind. This could hurt the ability of the region to attract new employers in growth industries as well as limit the supply of skilled high-growth entrepreneurs. The significantly stronger growth of those with 3 years or fewer of college indicates that there is an interest in pursuing higher education, but not at the bachelor’s degree level or higher. This may be attributed to the lack of a 4 year college in Jefferson or Lewis counties.
6. Per capita business creation rates in Jefferson and Lewis Counties are lower than state averages. This limits our ability to create new employment and economic growth endogenously. It further suggests that we lack an entrepreneurial culture and/or a class of motivated entrepreneurs who have the desire and capacity to launch new ventures.
7. Job creation has come largely from the service sector, with manufacturing declining in Jefferson and Lewis Counties as well as across the state and nation. National trends in outsourcing promise to fuel this decline, further eroding the base of manufacturing jobs in the region. Although state and county economic developers continue to pursue manufacturers as primary targets for industrial recruitment, hope or justification for this strategy appears to be declining. As the total volume of manufacturing decreases nationally, the chances of attracting new manufacturers to NNY should be expected to decrease in rough proportion. Manufacturing is an extremely unlikely source of future job growth in the region, therefore, developing a workforce for such employment is a questionable strategy.
8. The retail sector shows evidence of consolidation, moving away from a local or regional ownership model, toward a model with sales coming increasingly from large “big box” store chains and other chain or franchise establishments. The arrival of the big boxes has had no appreciable impact on overall retail employment in the region but may be at least partially responsible for the loss of roughly 300 wholesaling jobs in the two counties since 1990. The ability of these larger stores to attract tourist spending or retain local spending more effectively than smaller businesses is undetermined.
9. Agriculture in the region is a significant employer and economic driving force, but the aging farm workforce threatens potential future growth. The agricultural sector of the state and nation, as well as in Jefferson and Lewis Counties, is affected by a trend of farm consolidation and a shift from labor-intensive to capital/technology-intensive economics. This is likely to increase the demand for skilled technical workers in the agricultural community, while discouraging the growth and/or persistence of small family farms. The commodity nature of regional production will continue to limit investment capital and to subject the farming community to significant market-based price/earnings shifts for the foreseeable future.
10. Fort Drum represents an enormous economic engine in Jefferson County, with some impact likely to ripple across all of Northern New York (NNY). The post has the capacity to provide a younger, better educated workforce with more modern technical and managerial skills than are found in the general population of the region. Given the planned expansion in the Fort Drum workforce, Fort Drum’s separating soldier and spouse populations may act as a strategic asset in the development of a competitive 21st century workforce in NNY.
The
“Top 10” findings/observations from the primary research include:
1. Recruitment/retention of employees in the region may be affected by the inability of many employers to offer key benefits. Healthcare and retirement benefits were reported as being very important by members of the workforce. Employers recognize this but many report being unable to afford to offer these benefits to employees. This correlates closely with secondary data that shows the propensity to spend on health insurance to be higher than the national average for Lewis County and equivalent to the national average for Jefferson County. Individuals are called upon to provide their own health insurance where employers cannot.
2. Our workforce may not be developing skills in critical thinking, communications, and professional work habits. Employers, educators, and the workforce all recognize the importance of these skills but disagree on their prevalence. The workforce believes they have these skills and the educators are generally satisfied with soft skill levels of their students. Employers, however, report difficulty in finding employees with these skills.
3. We see technology as an important aspect of our future and are acting to address it. Employers and the workforce both expect technology skills to be of increasing importance in future employment and both are interested in gaining additional training in technology. Educators recognize the importance of technology as well and are interested in offering additional training/education in the field.
4. We do not generally value formal education. Many employers and members of the workforce are not concerned with a need for formal education or credentials. Educators are more likely to recognize the value of formal education but do not rate it as highly as other development areas. Those employers who do value formal education or require specific degrees or other credentials report significant difficulties in recruiting and retaining qualified employees. This correlates with secondary data showing the region as lagging behind the rest of the nation in numbers of 4-year degrees.
5. Employment patterns for employees in low-skill fields are extremely stable, with low rates of turnover or job mobility. Workers in these jobs tend to stay for long periods and appear satisfied, while their employers report little difficulty in recruiting or retaining employees. Those low-skill workers who are seeking alternative employment are typically looking for jobs in the same low-skill area. Skilled workers, however, have a much higher rate of turnover and retaining them is a challenge for many employers. This correlates with secondary data showing an trend of out-migration among younger and more skilled workers.
6. We generally agree that our economy is shifting away from manufacturing and toward service industries, but some employees continue to pursue manufacturing jobs. Employers, educators, and the workforce agree that future job growth will come in services, sales, technology, healthcare, and hospitality/tourism, while employment in manufacturing and farming will decline. In both counties, however, 12% of the surveyed workforce sees manufacturing as a growth industry in the region. In Lewis County, 12% of the workforce are actively seeking new jobs in manufacturing, versus only 2.7% in Jefferson County. The perception of declining numbers of manufacturing and growing numbers of service jobs correlates closely with secondary data from various sources.
7. Employers, educators, and the workforce would like to see more aggressive communication and guidance from regional workforce training/development and economic development organizations. Employers and educators have some awareness of these organizations, but the workforce is largely unaware of their existence or purpose. All three groups would like more information regarding employment and training trends/needs and available programs.
8. There is relatively little interaction between employers and educators in sharing information or influencing the training of young people entering the workforce. Few employers report participating in school career events or interacting with guidance counselors or faculty. Educators would like to see much greater employer participation in internships, shadowing programs, career events, and similar activities. Most educators use national and state data sources when assessing employment trends and job skill needs, rather than getting information from local employers.
9. Educators are concerned with their ability to train and advise students entering the workforce without higher education. Educators are generally very satisfied with their ability to prepare students for higher education but somewhat less satisfied with their ability to serve students entering the workforce. Educators are frustrated that the current emphasis on Regent’s preparation in the schools hurts their ability to provide vocational training and other assistance to students who are not seeking higher education. This trend threatens to hurt the region’s supply of skilled vocational workers.
10. Regional interest in entrepreneurship is high, in spite of our low level of successful business creation. One third of the surveyed workforce reports having owned a business or been self-employed in the past, while 15% report being interested in starting a business. This suggests that our low level of business creation, as compared to the rest of the state, is not attributable to a lack of interest in entrepreneurship among our workforce.